India Today, along with C-Voter, has released the ‘Mood of the Nation’ survey, which projects Tamil Nadu as a continued stronghold of the INDIA bloc, with the DMK leading the alliance.
According to the survey, if the Lok Sabha elections were held in January 2026, the DMK-led alliance in Tamil Nadu is projected to win 38 out of the 39 parliamentary seats in the state.
As per the survey findings, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA)—comprising the BJP, AIADMK, and other regional parties in Tamil Nadu—is expected to win only one constituency. The report also notes a decline in the NDA’s prospects over the past few months. The previous Mood of the Nation survey conducted in August 2025 had projected 2–3 seats for the AIADMK-BJP alliance.
The August 2025 survey had projected 35–36 seats for the INDIA bloc. This projection has now increased to 38 seats in the January 2026 survey, indicating that the DMK-led alliance is gaining momentum ahead of the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections.
Notably, the INDIA bloc had secured all 39 seats in Tamil Nadu during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
The projected vote-share data reflects a similar trend. The survey predicts that the INDIA bloc would secure a 45% vote share, which is close to its 47% vote share in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
In contrast, the NDA’s projected vote share stands at 33% in January 2026, a significant drop from the 41% vote share it secured in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. This indicates a sharp decline in public support for the alliance over the past two years.
In a notable development, Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) has emerged as a surprise factor, securing a projected 15% vote share in the January 2026 Mood of the Nation survey. The party, which was formed in February 2024, did not contest the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Despite shifts in vote-share patterns, the seat projection suggests that the DMK-led alliance continues to hold the fort in Tamil Nadu. This sustained support is attributed to several flagship welfare schemes introduced by the DMK government, including the Kalaignar Magalir Urimai Thogai Scheme, Vidiyal Payanam (free bus travel for women), the Chief Minister’s Free Breakfast Scheme, and the Pudhumai Penn Scheme, which provides financial assistance to girls to continue their education.
– Magizh
