A latest survey by Poll Tracker on the upcoming Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections 2026 has projected a decisive lead for the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led alliance, both in terms of vote share and seat tally.
According to the survey, the DMK alliance is expected to secure between 172 and 178 seats in the 234-member Assembly, with an estimated vote share of 42.7 percent. The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led alliance is projected to win between 46 and 52 seats, with a vote share of 30.3 percent.
The survey also highlights the presence of Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, which is projected to secure a 19.2 percent vote share and win between 6 and 12 seats. Meanwhile, Naam Tamilar Katchi is expected to receive 5.1 percent of the vote, translating into 0 to 2 seats. Other parties are projected to account for 2.8 percent vote share without winning any seats.
The projections indicate that the DMK alliance is positioned well above the majority mark in the Tamil Nadu Assembly, reflecting a significant electoral advantage over its rivals.
Key Observations from Poll Tracker Survey
The survey notes that a degree of scepticism toward Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party has been observed among sections of voters in Tamil Nadu. It also states that the AIADMK–PMK alliance is witnessing a decline in voter support, attributed to developments involving leaders such as S. Ramadoss and V. K. Sasikala, which may be influencing anti-incumbency sentiment.
In terms of leadership perception, M. K. Stalin is seen by a section of voters as a more familiar and established leader compared to Edappadi K. Palaniswami and Vijay. The survey states that TVK is gaining traction among voters from both DMK and AIADMK backgrounds, while welfare measures implemented by the DMK government are helping the party retain support, particularly among women voters.
Region-wise trends indicate that the DMK alliance is in a stronger position across key areas. The alliance is expected to improve its performance in the western (Kongu) region compared to the previous Assembly election, maintain stability in the Delta region, and register moderate gains in southern districts.
The survey further highlights a shift among younger voters, with some who previously supported NTK now considering TVK, which could result in a decline in NTK’s vote share. Within AIADMK, the survey points to signs of internal dissatisfaction, including movement of some functionaries toward TVK and concerns regarding leadership momentum.
