An opinion poll conducted by Inside Election ahead of the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections indicates a strong lead for the DMK-led alliance in both projected vote share and seat tally. According to the survey, the DMK+ alliance is estimated to secure 44% of the vote share, translating into approximately 159 to 165 seats in the 234-member Assembly.
The NDA is projected to receive a 33% vote share, with an estimated 64 to 70 seats. Actor-politician Vijay’s TVK is expected to garner 18% vote share but convert that into only 4 to 6 seats. The Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) stands at 3% with no projected seats, while others collectively account for 2%, also with no seats forecast.
The poll also highlights voter preference for the Chief Ministerial candidate. Incumbent Chief Minister M. K. Stalin leads with 44% support as the preferred CM face. Edappadi K. Palaniswami follows with 28%, while Vijay is close behind at 24%. NTK’s Seeman records 3%, and other candidates together account for 1%.
In terms of governance perception, 30% of respondents rated the current Tamil Nadu government’s performance as “very good,” while 20% termed it “good.” Around 25% described the performance as “average.” On the other hand, 15% rated it as “bad,” and 10% considered it “very bad.”
When asked about the continuity of the current government, a majority of 55% of respondents said the government should continue. About 25% indicated a preference for change, while 20% remained undecided or chose not to express an opinion.
