According to the Poll Tracker survey, the electoral outlook for the Kerala Assembly Elections 2026 shows the United Democratic Front (UDF) holding a clear numerical advantage over the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) in both projected seat share and vote percentage.
The survey estimates that the UDF will win between 76 and 85 seats, comfortably crossing the majority mark of 71, with a vote share ranging from 42.8% to 44.2%. In contrast, the LDF is projected to secure between 55 and 60 seats, with a vote share between 37.5% and 39.5%. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is forecast to win between 1 and 3 seats, with a vote share of 13.5% to 14.8%, while other parties are expected to remain marginal, securing no seats and around 2% to 2.5% of the vote share.
The survey data indicates a shift in voter sentiment after ten years of LDF governance, with references to anti-incumbency trends and sections of the electorate indicating a preference for political change.
The survey also highlights patterns of consolidation among minority voters and notes that issues such as the Sabarimala controversy, public healthcare infrastructure, and corruption-related concerns have played a role in shaping electoral preferences across constituencies.
In the chief ministerial preference segment, Ramesh Chennithala leads with 24.0% support, followed by incumbent Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan at 22.3% and Leader of Opposition V. D. Satheesan at 21.6%. The narrow margins between the top three candidates indicate a competitive leadership landscape. Former Health Minister K. K. Shailaja registers 17.4% preference, while Shashi Tharoor records 14.7%, with the survey noting that his support is concentrated among urban, educated, and NRI-linked voters, particularly in Thiruvananthapuram.
